Wednesday, 26 September 2007

The Coming General Election

Don't be fooled by Gordon Brown's ambivalent attitude towards the holding of an election! The snap election will be called for the end of October as predicted long ago on this blog. There are a number of indicators to substantiate this conviction.
1) The polls are running strongly in Labour's favour
2) The Conservatives are in disarray if not in dispute within their ranks
3) The Liberal Democrats are considered of little consequence
4) Gordon Brown is seeking a mandate for the next ten years
5) There is no better time than now
There are factors which also come into play regarding the resurgent nations of Scotland and Wales, and Labour is heading for trouble in both these countries. Labour will not do well in either place. In England, however, they will show their strength.
The reason is that the Scots are becoming increasingly nationalistic and large numbers will support the SNP. In Wales, there is a dislike of "New Labour", which is a pale pink form of Socialism, and Welsh sentiment is predominantly socialist and progressive. Therefore Plaid Cymru stands to benefit and will gain votes across the country and not only in the north and west. This is why Rhodri distanced himself with his "clear red water" from the staunchly Unionist and retrogressive Labour MPs in Westminster. But as the election is now imminent he is concerned to present a united front along with Gordon Brown and Peter Hain in order to gain the most Labour votes and preserve some kind of party unity. The problem with Labour is that it is party-centric rather than people-centric which a truly socialist party would be.

I will now print an extract from the blog Tartan Hero which supports the view expressed above.

These are some of the reasons given for Brown going now:
- An autumn election is about giving Brown a mandate, not on his record
- The Conservatives are not ready - Cameron has not had long enough
- "Give him a chance" is a compelling narrative
- The Murdoch press is broadly onside
- The economic clouds are gathering even though the storm is of Brown's creation he looks a steadier and more credible pair of hands to see us through than Cameron & Osborne (who looks out of his depth)
- The government is clearly thinking short term politically, see the panicked and knee-jerk reaction to the pictures of queues outside Northern Rock branches. If they were not thinking of an election they wouldn't have panicked
- Buggers up the Conservative (and the SNP) conference

Against an Autumn Election
- Lack of EU referendum will cause a stink and bad timing with the forthcoming EU ICG (not exactly on the minds of most punters)
- Polls may be wrong a la 1992 and overstating Labour support as a reaction to the thank god Blair has gone public feeling
- Will Alex Salmond and the SNP bring trouble for Labour at the polls?

So what do you think?

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