Wednesday, 2 December 2009

Scotland prepares for the Election Battle

Details of today’s poll TNS/System 3 are as follows:

Holyrood Constituency Vote (with change from 2007 in brackets)

SNP: 41% (+8%)
Labour: 29% (-3%)
Tory: 15% (-2%)
LibDem: 11% (-5%)
Other: 3% (1%)

Holyrood Regional Vote (with change from 2007 in brackets)

SNP: 40% (+9%)
Labour: 30% (1%)
Tory: 13% (-1%)
LibDem: 10% (-1%)
Green: 4% (nc)
Other: 4% (-7%)

Holyrood seats analysis

Running those figures through the Weber Shandwick seats predictor gives the following result (with change in brackets):

SNP - 58 (+11)
Labour - 41 (-5)
Tory - 16 (-1)
LibDem - 12 (-4)
Green - 2 (nc)

Westminster voting intentions (with change in brackets)

SNP: 32% (+14%)
Labour: 36% (-4%)
Tory: 19% (3%)
LibDem: 9% (-14%)
SNP re-takes poll position ahead of elections (2009-12-02 9:52)
Poll puts SNP ahead in marginal seats (2009-10-03 11:16)
SNP moves ahead in latest poll (2009-09-13 11:09)
Support growing for SNP Government (2009-09-06 9:34)
Polls shows increase in SNP support (2009-08-30 11:20)

3 comments:

oldnat said...

Alan

I haven't seen this polling data before. What's your source?

alanindyfed said...

It came from the SNP blog @
www.snp.org

oldnat said...

I suspect there might have been a screw up on the SNP site! Those figures aren't there now and there hasn't been a TNS/System 3 poll since November.

However the latest MORI poll confirms a small SNP lead over Labour - even at Westminster, and a significant lead for Holyrood.

The really big shift in Scottish politics is the increasing collapse of the LDs. November's TNS poll showed them down to 7% in their Highland heartland (it can't possibly be that low!)with the SNP as the clear beneficiaries.

In Scotland, few in the MORI poll thought that a Westminster Tory Government would be good for Scotland (that includes 20% of Scots Tories!) so there will be tactical voting here to try to prevent that.