Sunday, 25 April 2010
Repeating an Earlier Prediction for the Election
This prediction was made on April 14th just before the first televised debate. I make a slight amendment* to it. Here and here you will find evidence to support this view.
The Conservative Party will win with a small working majority of seats, and will govern with the support of the Lib Dems*.
The Liberal Democrats will do better than everyone expects or polls suggest.
Smaller parties - the SNP, Plaid Cymru, the Greens, UKIP will do well.
Large numbers of the electorate, almost 50%, will not cast their vote.
The fact is that the majority of people are disillusioned with all politicians and in particular those of the major parties, therefore they will abstain from voting or will cast a protest vote, benefiting independents and smaller parties.