The Scottish Nationalists’ resounding election success raises the i-word and will have major implications for Wales. Political editor David Williamson assesses the situation
THE revolution in Scottish politics will send regular tremors through the United Kingdom over the next five years and Wales will feel the full force of each shock-wave.
There are at least three immediate implications for the nation.
First, independence is on the agenda, and the future of the UK as we know it has been called into question. It is almost unthinkable that a referendum on Scottish independence will not be held, but it is likely to take place towards the end of the parliamentary term.
This means that over the coming years there will be intensive coverage of the debate and scrutiny of the viability of an independent Scotland. The controversy will provoke strong reactions on either side of the debate but it also gives time for people to become used to the idea that the different parts of the UK are linked by the principle of consent and not some impermeable constitutional cement.
It is inevitable that this will embolden supporters of Welsh independence and force Plaid Cymru to clearly articulate its own position.
There is also a good chance the debate will strengthen English nationalism, focusing attention on the question of why Welsh, Scottish and Northern Irish MPs can vote on English health and education policies when Westminster has no say over the direction taken by the devolved governments.
The second main area that the triumph of the SNP will affect Wales is in the debate over finance. All parties in the Assembly are convinced that a new formula is needed to determine how cash is allocated from the Treasury. There is strong evidence that Scotland benefits disproportionately from the Barnett formula while Wales loses out.
As a result of the Calman commission, proposals were laid out to give Scotland greater fiscal freedom, and legislation is working its way through parliament. However, the SNP will want to go further and Welsh politicians will soon realise that they – literally – cannot afford to be left out of this debate.
Welsh Labour has opposed the devolution of tax-varying powers and focused its attention on the apparent inequity of Barnett. But the SNP’s demands may force major changes in how all UK regions are financed, including in England. Such developments could transform the financial position of the Assembly for good or ill.
The third impact of a majority SNP government in Scotland is that Labour has suffered a cataclysmic defeat in a key heartland at a time when it is locked out of power in Westminster.
Unless the coalition collapses, Labour will not have a chance of winning the keys to Downing Street until 2015. This means that increasing attention will be focused on First Minister Carwyn Jones as the most senior elected Labour figure in the UK.
If Labour fails to unseat London Mayor Boris Johnson next year, Wales will be the only part of the UK beyond local government that can showcase Labour policies in action.
Just as Welsh Conservatives have found a way of thriving while their Scottish counterparts have all but perished, Welsh Labour nows stands tall in juxtaposition to the wounded party in the north.
There will be opportunities for Mr Jones to play an increasingly high-profile role in British debates and to carve out a politics in Wales that contrasts with the nationalism now dominant in Scotland and the centre-right policies pursued in England.
He will also have to convince his Westminster colleagues that devolution does not lead inexorably towards separatism. The transformation of the Scottish political map will have done nothing to assure devo-sceptics that once the genie of autonomy is out of the bottle the spirit of independence also arrives.
Read More http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/2011/05/09/snp-success-will-inspire-campaigners-for-welsh-independence-91466-28658725/#ixzz1Ly7LaaXg
Comment
As this blog continually reaffirms Wales will follow Scotland on the road to independence and the vision which inspires Alex Salmon and the Scottish nationalists will at a later stage be grasped by the people of Wales. The notion will dawn eventually that separatism in this modern world is an illusion but reviving the spirit of a nation within Europe and joining up with equal partners as independent and yet interdependent is the way of the future.
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