Sunday, 3 May 2009

Forging Ahead to Independence

YouGov Poll:

On balance, do you think Scotland should ...

• Continue to be represented in the EU by the UK Government ... 40%
• Be a member of the EU in its own right represented by the Scottish Government ... 42%

and the second is:

In the referendum, the Scottish Government intends to ask people whether they think the Scottish Government should negotiate a new partnership with the United Kingdom so that Scotland becomes an independent country. Do you agree or disagree that the Scottish Government should negotiate this new partnership?

• Agree ... 37%
• Disagree ... 52%


A Scottish opinion poll for TNS/System 3, and reported in the Sunday Herald, has shown the SNP continuing to win the support of the Scottish public at Holyrood in an unprecedented mid-term poll, as well as closing the gap on Labour for Westminster as the second anniversary of the SNP’s historic election victory takes place.

The poll, which is the first post-budget poll in Scotland, puts the SNP 12 points ahead of Labour for the Holyrood constituency vote and 10 points heads in the regional vote. This compares to a 1 point lead on the constituency vote in the 2007 elections, and a 2 point lead on the regional vote.

On the basis of this poll the SNP would win 58 seats – 11 more than in 2007 – and be the only party to make gains.

The poll also shows the SNP closing the gap at Westminster to only 4 points compared to a massive 20% lead four years ago.

The poll shows the SNP’s lead over Labour at Holyrood increasing from 7 points in the SNP commissioned YouGov poll released last week to 12 points in the Sunday Herald.

SNP MSP and Parliamentary Business Minister Bruce Crawford said;

“This unprecedented midterm poll shows that voters across Scotland know that together we all have what it takes to focus on the people’s needs and interests during these tough times.

“As the first post-budget poll in Scotland it shows that whilst the SNP is focused on protecting and creating jobs for the people of Scotland, the Labour party are only arguing about their own jobs.

“Ten years on from devolution, on our second anniversary in Government, this phenomenal lead in the opinion polls shows it is the SNP winning the support of and speaking up for the people of Scotland.

“As we reach the mid term of the Parliament this poll shows the SNP not only maintaining our support from the Scottish public but building on it as we govern with the competence and leadership Scotland expects.

“The results for Westminster are tremendously encouraging as the SNP closes the gap on Labour and confirms the tale of two Governments seen by voters in Scotland.

“The SNP Government have a fantastic record of policy delivery on behalf of the people of Scotland. In just two years we have already delivered over half of our headline manifesto commitments to improve the lives of people all across Scotland. Families and businesses are facing tough times, but together Scotland and Scotland’s Government have what it takes to work through the downturn towards economic prosperity and social justice.

"In contrast, Labour is a beleaguered UK Government and their decision to retain ID cards and to build a new Trident system while carrying out a £500 million raid on Scottish spending has set the terms of politics in Scotland, and will galvanise SNP support further in the European and Westminster elections to come.”



MH said...

Thanks Alan. I took a look at full results of the poll on the YouGov site and was even more taken aback by another pair of questions that it asked.

42% of people want Scotland to be a member of the EU in its own right, while only 40% want Scotland to be represented through the UK Government. Yet at the same time only 37% want independence, and 52% are against.

I can't fully figure out what the difference is, but I've commented on it in the Syniadau blog.

MH said...

Alan, just in case it isn't obvious to other readers, you edited your original post after my comment.

But thanks for doing it. And, to ask the big question, do you think that if we presented the argument in terms of who represents us at the EU, we would get a similarly large proportion of Labour, LibDem and Tory supporters to agree with us?

alanindyfed said...

That is something that cannot be predicted and certainly not guaranteed!

y soc said...

Do the Welsh people want to be stuck with the bill for Gordon Brown's reckless borrowing?