Thursday, 9 April 2015

Why not make it a a Clean Sweep?

No really, the SNP are going to win at least 50

of Scotland’s 59 seats.

The swing in Labour’s heartlands is even
greater than the swing implied by national
polls.

by Harry Lambert Published 7 April, 2015 - 11:58

The SNP has surged since the referendum under Sturgeon's leadership. Photo: Getty.

Four things have changed in the polls – and in election predictions – since this site launched in early September.
Labour lost their 3-4 point poll lead and are now resolutely tied with the Tories; Ukip have gradually dipped since November, but are still set to win 4 million votes; and the Greens nearly caught the Lib Dems in the polls before fading.
But by far the most significant change has, of course, been in Scotland. If the SNP surge had never happened, Labour would be set to win more than 300 seats and take power in May. Instead, we are predicting the SNP will win 55 seats, and an average of different forecasts hands them 46. In 2010 they won 6. There are only 59 seats in Scotland.

Few pundits believe these predictions.

Few pundits believe these predictions. Most people hesitate to give the SNP more than 30 seats (as a recent survey of hundreds of political academics proved). Very few can conceive of more than 40. And almost no one predicts the SNP will win at least 50.
And yet no poll has implied the SNP will win as few as 35 seats, and the vast majority suggest they will win more than 40. 18 Scotland-wide polls have been published over the past five months, and they have almost all suggested the same thing: the SNP will win 45-50 seats, and Labour will lose around 30 of its 41.

Labour are collapsing in their heartlands

At their most favourable, the polls suggest Labour will only lose half their Scottish seats. But no poll has been so favourable to Labour since February began, and constituency polls published since then have suggested that national polls are underrating the scale of Labour’s collapse.
Lord Ashcroft has polled 40 per cent of Scotland’s seats over the past two months. His polls have been devastating for Labour. He has polled 19 of Labour’s 41 seats. 16 of those polls have been in the harder half of seats for the SNP to win – the ones where Labour are protecting majorities of at least 29 points (for comparison, Ed Miliband won his seat, Doncaster North, by 26 points in 2010).

Ashcroft’s polls suggest Labour will lose also but 3-4 of their seats.

14 of those 16 polls have put the SNP ahead, all by at least 3 points (in other words, almost all are outside the margin of error). These polls imply Labour will lose all but 3-4 of their seats. That is significantly fewer than the 9-11 seats that national polls imply Labour will hold.
In other words, the swing to the SNP in Labour’s heartlands is even greater than the swing in national polls. The swing in national polls is 20.5 points, which means any Labour seat with a majority of less than 41 per cent would turn SNP on an uniform swing. [1]
But Ashcroft has shown an even greater swing than 20.5 points in the 19 Labour-held seats he’s polled. The swing he’s found has been just under 25 points, which would wipe out all Labour seats where they hold majorities of less than 50 points (David Cameron won his seat, Witney, by 39 points in 2010).

Dramatic SNP surge in Scotland set to leave

Labour with just TWO MPs robbing Miliband

of a Commons majority

Study of marginal seats suggests election heading for deadlock in May
The SNP is on course for a landslide in Scotland at the General Election
Nationalists could win as many as 56 of Scotland's 59 seats, up from six
Labour would be left with two MPs, the Lib Dems one and the Tories none

By Jason Groves for the Daily Mail

A dramatic surge by the SNP looks set to claim Gordon Brown's Scottish seat and rob Ed Miliband of a Commons majority, according to a new poll last night.

The study of marginal constituencies suggests Labour and the Conservatives are heading for electoral deadlock in May, with neither party able to govern alone.

The poll, commissioned by former Tory treasurer Lord Ashcroft, suggests the SNP is on course for a landslide at the General Election, winning as many as 56 of Scotland's 59 seats - up from just six at present.

The SNP surge would claim seats held by a string of household names, including those of departing Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling, and former Lib Dem leader Charles Kennedy. The Tories are also in danger of losing their one Scottish seat, held by David Mundell.

At Westminster the poll suggests Labour and the Conservatives will be tied on 272 seats each - well short of the 326 needed to command a Commons majority. Lord Ashcroft said the astonishing surge by the SNP in the wake of last year's independence referendum had thrown a 'giant spanner in Labour's works', although the party is forecast to win Tory seats south of the border.

Of the eight Scottish seats polled, the SNP would gain six - including four from Labour - and tie with Mr Mundell, in Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale.

Friday, 3 April 2015

Nicola Sturgeon - outright winner of the debate

Many people in England and Wales would love the chance to vote for Nicola Sturgeon.
She has multiplied the chances that the Scots will wipe the board and deprive Scottish Labour of sending MP`s to Westminster.
She was well supported by Leanne Wood, he smaller parties should do well at the General Election and Plaid Cymru may well increase its representation.

"The Guardian"

General election 2015

SNP supporters mob Nicola Sturgeon in

Edinburgh after leaders' debate

SNP leader says feedback has been positive after televised debate but cautions against getting carried away with ‘post-match analysis’

Nicola Sturgeon in Corstorphine — Nicola Sturgeon surrounded by supporters in Corstorphine, Edinburgh. Photograph: Robert Perry/EPA

Severin Carrell Scotland correspondent

Friday 3 April 2015 09.35 EDT Last modified on Friday 3 April 2015 19.12 EDT

Jubilant supporters have mobbed Nicola Sturgeon on a slow, triumphal walk through west Edinburgh, her standing having been transformed overnight by an acclaimed appearance in the leaders’ debate.
A crowd of SNP voters – some hardened activists, others new arrivals swept along in the swelling tide behind Sturgeon’s party, were ecstatic in their reception of the first minister. If the event was intended as a simple photocall, the upbeat atmosphere turned it into something closer to a coronation.
“Good job last night, Nicola,” shouted one man as supporters mobbed the first minister, their hands holding mobile phones aloft for that closeup moment; a woman near by yelled out: “You were wonderful.”
Poised, coiffed and grinning , Sturgeon was in demand for a string of selfies. She was told by one mother posing for a picture with her sons: “Well done last night, you done women proud. Thank you. Thank you so much!”
There were toddlers to meet and local chemists to charm. And as motorists sounded their car horns in an impromptu chorus, Sturgeon affected modesty at the critical applause and poll-topping ratings her performance achieved. “The feedback, as far as I have seen, and it is up for other people to judge, has been positive,” she said.

She said she was delighted to have the chance to seize the initiative on a UK-wide platform. It confirmed her party is poised to win an historic landslide, perhaps claiming upwards of 40 of Scotland’s 59 Westminster seats.
“If we all work as hard as we know we can, then the momentum is unstoppable. And on 7 May, we will make sure that Scotland’s voice is ringing through the corridors of Westminster more loudly than it has ever done before,” she proclaimed, to roars of approval.
This was the boss talking, the 44-year-old first minister first began delivering SNP leaflets as a 16-year-old. For years she was the disciplined grafter who failed four times to win a constituency seat in Westminster and Holyrood before finally triumphing in 2007 (she was elected to Holyrood in 1999 and 2003 on the regional list). The woman who nearly stood for the leadership in 2004, but instead chose to serve as deputy leader for a decade to Alex Salmond.
Now, after appearing alongside her allies Natalie Bennett, the English Greens leader and her friend Leanne Wood, leader of the Welsh nationalist Plaid Cymru, Sturgeon seemed even to going beyond Scotland, as she said the debate on ITV amounted to an advert for the “progressive alternative” they hope to offer all UK voters.
This would challenge the entire establishment at Westminster, not just on behalf of Scots and Welsh radicals and nationalists, but progressives in England too. “I’m very keen to find that common ground; and if we’re in a position to do so, find that common ground and deliver change,” Sturgeon said.
As her old boss Alex Salmond, out campaigning in Fife, enthused that his former protege was “wiping the floor with the Westminster old boys’ network”, Sturgeon offered words of caution: “We’ve got to see how people vote; after all, there’s a danger that all of us will get carried away with the post-match analysis.”
Judging by the sheer energy and spirit of the scores of activists gathered on St John’s Road in the prosperous suburb of Costorphine, this is yet another seat the Liberal Democrats are unlikely to hold. And that simple fact is evidence of how far the SNP’s post-referendum tide has reached.

Edinburgh West was, until this election, a three-way marginal where the SNP would come a distant fourth. The Lib Dems’ Mike Crockart took it with a 3,803-vote majority over Labour, the Tories a close third. Five years ago, the SNP was more than 10,000 votes adrift behind Crockart.
But the referendum campaign has changed that. While Edinburgh West, like most of Scotland’s capital, voted heavily against independence last September, by 42,946 against to 22,615 in favour, the SNP has effectively kept every one of those yes votes and built on them. The no vote is split in three. To have any hope of holding this seat, the Lib Dems need Tory and Labour no voters to act tactically in their favour to hold off the SNP.
But now, to add to the Lib Dems’ discomfort, the SNP’s campaign headquarters is in the old Yes Scotland shop immediately next door to Crockart’s high street office.
And protected behind a privacy screen, four Lib Dem workers stoically continued working away on their campaign, as scores of raucous SNP supporters, their saltires, SNP placards and balloons above their heads, greeted Sturgeon’s arrival.
Crockart was away at a meeting. A tall young man in his subdued office seemed to shrug off the contrast. Were they flustered by the huge crowds outside? “Not really. We had it during the referendum. It’s fine. It’s democracy,” he said.
As across Scotland, the 2010 results in Edinburgh West are an historical irrelevance. The referendum changed the political map. Today the SNP could well win; their candidate is Michelle Thomson, a businesswoman who became an active figurehead of the small but active pro-independence Business for Scotland campaign.
But Sturgeon had a warning message to her supporters, their numbers swollen by people off work for the Easter bank holiday. She had seen during the referendum campaign thousands of yes activists celebrating before polling day, assuming victory and then tasting defeat. It irritated her deeply then. The SNP is being far more canny now.
So in her parting message to her supporters, she fought to get her voice heard over the car horns and chatter of the crowd: “Michelle is going to be a fantastic MP but she’s only going to be your MP if you get out there and make it happen.”
Before climbing into her official car, a black Scottish government hybrid Lexus, she came close to chiding the jubilant crowd, drumming home a work ethic central to her success. “We’ve got a great opportunity but we’re only going to grasp that opportunity if we get out there and work harder than we’ve ever worked before,” she said.
“My message to you is let’s take nothing for granted – not a single vote. Let’s get out there over the next few weeks and make sure we win this election for Scotland.”

Thursday, 19 March 2015

If you are Welsh you are British....

Are the WELSH the truest Brits?

English genomes share German and French

DNA - while Romans and Vikings left no trace

Scientists found that Britain can be divided into 17 distinct genetic 'clans'
The Welsh have the most DNA from the original settlers of the British Isles
English genomes are a quarter German and 45 per cent French in origin
French DNA dates from before the Norman conquests of Britain in 1066
Despite their reputation for raping the Vikings left little trace of their DNA
The ancient Romans also left little of their DNA behind after their conquest
People in Cornwall and Devon form two distinct groups that rarely mixed
Note from alanindyfed: The "French DNA" relates to the Gauls, not the Franks. Gauls constituted the Celtic tribes of France during the Roman occupation.

By Fiona Macrae for the Daily Mail

Published: 18:06 GMT, 18 March 2015 | Updated: 14:49 GMT, 19 March 2015

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We like to think of ourselves as being different from our European neighbours.

But the English owe a lot to the French and a fair amount to the Germans – at least as far as our genes are concerned.

For a study has mapped the genetic make-up of Britain. Researchers analysed the genetic code of 2,000 white Britons and compared the results to data on more than 6,000 people from ten European countries.

The study found that Britain can be divided into 17 distinct genetic 'clans', as shown in the map above

They found that many of us have DNA that is 45 per cent French in origin while many white Britons are a quarter German.

Surprisingly, given that they invaded and occupied large parts of the British Isles for four centuries, there is little genetic trace of the Romans.

Similarly, the Vikings may have a reputation for rape and pillage but the genetic evidence shows they did not have enough children with the locals for their Danish DNA to be present today.

The Anglo-Saxons, in contrast, did leave a genetic legacy, with about 20 per cent of the DNA of many English people coming from the invaders who arrived 1,600 years ago.

The diagram above shows the European ancestry of each of the 17 genetic clusters found in the new genetic study of the UK. The Welsh were found to have DNA that dates back to the earliest settlers of Britain

Further DNA comes from earlier migrants from what is now Germany.

The French contribution to our genes did not come from the conquering Normans but from much earlier.

WELSH ARE THE TRUE BRITONS

The Welsh are the true pure Britons, according to the research that has produced the first genetic map of the UK.

Scientists were able to trace their DNA back to the first tribes that settled in the British Isles following the last ice age around 10,000 years ago.

Due to its westerly location and mountainous landscape, few invaders like the Anglo-Saxons, Romans and Vikings ventured into the Welsh lands.

This means the DNA of people living there has not experienced the influx of 'foreign' genes like other parts of Britain.

The research found that there is no single 'Celtic' genetic group. The Welsh, Scottish, Northern Irish and Cornish were found to be the most different from the rest of the country.

The Cornish are much more genetically similar to other English groups than they are to the Welsh or the Scots.

Some is from the earliest modern Britons who arrived after the last Ice Age and more came from a mystery set of migrants who settled before the Romans invaded.

Other countries to contribute genes to English DNA include Belgium, Denmark and Spain.

The Oxford University study, which examined people whose grandparents had all been born near each other and were white European in origin, revealed that Caucasian Britons can be separated into 17 distinct genetic groups.

Remarkably, many of these modern-day ‘clans’ are found in the same parts of the country as the tribes and kingdoms of the 6th century – suggesting little changed in Britain for almost 1,500 years.

The people of Orkney are the most distinct, a result of 600 years of Norwegian rule.

The Welsh are the next most distinct.

They have so much DNA from the first modern settlers, that they could claim to be the truest of Britons.

But even within Wales there are two distinct tribes, with those in the north and south of the principality less similar genetically than the Scots are to the inhabitants of Kent.

Clear differences can be seen between the inhabitants of Cornwall and Devon, while West Yorkshire and Cumbria also have their own genetic heritage.

The scientists found Caucasians in Britain can be divided into 17 genetic groups living in different parts of the country, as shown in the diagram above. Each group had varying amounts of European DNA in their genes

THE WEST'S GENETIC DIVIDE

They see themselves as rivals rather than neighbours – and the genetic map explains why.

For it has revealed that the inhabitants of Cornwall and Devon are two distinct groups.

Remarkably, the divide in their DNA is an almost exact match for the modern geographical boundary – those with Cornish genes tend to live on one side of the Tamar, while those with Devonian DNA are on the other. The Cornish have fewer genes in common with the rest of the UK. Dr Magdalena Skipper, of the journal Nature, described the match as ‘truly stunning’.

Oxford University researcher Sir Walter Bodmer said the difference could probably be explained by the Anglo-Saxons taking longer to reach the isolated peninsula of Cornwall – and so contributing less DNA to the gene pool there than in Devon.

EXPOSED, THE CELTIC MYTH

Despite their claims to a cultural kinship, the Celtic peoples do not form a single group, the research shows.

Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales and Cornwall have a very different genetic make-up.

The Cornish have DNA that is much more similar to that of other English groups than to the Welsh or the Scots.

Oxford University geneticist Professor Peter Donnelly said: ‘One might have expected those groups to be quite similar genetically because they were Celtic. But while see distinct groups in those regions they are amongst the most different.’

Archaeologist Professor Mark Robinson said: ‘I had assumed that there was going to be this uniform Celtic fringe extending from Cornwall through to Wales into Scotland. And this has very definitely not been the case.’

Britain today is much more genetically diverse than 125 years ago, when the grandparents of those who took part in the study were around, but the same technique could be used to read someone’s DNA and work out which parts of the UK their ancestors came from.

The research, published in the journal Nature, did not find any obvious genetic footprint from the Romans or Danish Vikings.

However, this is not down to a lack of virility – merely that they were not here in large enough numbers to have had enough children for their genes to live on today.

Study co-leader Sir Walter Bodmer said: ‘You get a relatively small group of people who can dominate a country that they come into and there are not enough of them, however much they intermarry, to have enough of an influence that we can detect them in the genetics that we do.

‘At that time, the population of Britain could have been as much as one million, so an awful lot of people would need to arrive in order for there to be an impact.’

The map of the UK on the left shows how the country can be divided into 17 distinct groups that have a striking relationship with geography. Each of the clusters is represented by a different symbol while the ellipses give a sense of the geographical range of each genetic cluster. The map on the right shows the regions of ancient British, Irish and Saxon control which relate to many of the modern genetic clusters

His colleague Professor Peter Donnelly added: 'Genetics tells us the story of what happens to the masses.

'There were already large numbers of people in those areas of Britain by the time the Danish Vikings came so to have a substantial impact on the genetics there would need to be very large numbers of them leaving DNA for subsequent generations.

Thursday, 5 March 2015

Why Stop at 56 SNP MP`s. Elect them all to Westminster!

From "The Guardian"

SNP set for 56 of 59 Scottish seats in general

election, poll suggests

Polling by Lord Ashcroft indicates that Charles Kennedy could be on the casualty list and Gordon Brown’s seat could fall

Nicholas Watt Chief political correspondent

Wednesday 4 March 2015 21.00 GMT Last modified on Thursday 5 March 2015 00.21 GMT

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1,966

The full scale of the post-referendum political earthquake in Scotland has been demonstrated by a new poll which suggests Charles Kennedy’s once safe seat will fall to the Scottish National party, along with the seat Gordon Brown is retiring from in May.

The poll by Lord Ashcroft – which is of a series of parliamentary seats across Britain – indicates that the SNP, led by Nicola Sturgeon, could win 56 of Scotland’s 59 parliamentary seats, according to the veteran polling analyst Mike Smithson. This would virtually wipe out the Labour party and the Liberal Democrats north of the border.
The projected success of the SNP would almost cancel out Labour gains in other parts of Great Britain, producing a dead heat between the two main parties on 7 May, according to Ashcroft’s projections.
The former Tory treasurer, who now insists he is an impartial pollster, suggested that the Tories and Labour would be tied on 272 seats each. Labour won 258 seats in 2010 while the Tories won 306 seats.
In a presentation to the ConservativeHome website, Ashcroft challenged David Cameron to “weaponise” himself – a play on the wording Ed Miliband is reported to have used to describe Labour’s tactics on the NHS.
Labour and the Liberal Democrats were shocked by signs of the depth of the SNP breakthrough despite losing the independence referendum in September. Charles Kennedy, the former Lib Dem leader, is five points behind the SNP in his Highlands seat of Ross, Skye and Lochabar. The poll placed the SNP in his seat on 40%, the Lib Dems on 35%, Labour on 9% and the Tories on 8%.

Friday, 21 November 2014

Scotland`s phoenix and Labour`s demise

Interestingly,

Scotland "voted" No in the independence referendum. After the referendum polls were done to ascertain people`s voting intentions, and the results were reversed with a majority saying they would vote Yes if it were to be re-run.

Scottish Labour is in melt-down, Ed Milliband is highly unpopular, and Labour would lose most of its Scottish MP`s in the next general election, while the SNP would gain 45 (it now has 2).

Then, the SNP have announced that should the UK vote to leave Europe in a referendum they will definitely hold a second independence referendum, as they wish to remain in Europe.

Lastly, SNP and Plaid Cymru members would not support the Conservatives in a new government.

NOTE: The Catalan people voted for independence from Spain in an "illegal" referendum and 80% voted in favour.

Tuesday, 23 September 2014

A Matter of Expediency

For the moment a flame has been quenched. Realistically there was no way that the English Establishment, would allow the dissolution of the British state. Therefore the media, the bankers, the lawyers, the economists, the industrialists and the Queen, were all assembled to oppose the movement for independence and to convince the undecided Scottish voters, by fair means and foul, of the uncertainties and possible dangers of such a venture. Catalunya, take note, for you face a similar conclusion.

All means were employed to ensure that the Noes would win the day, and no doubt many underhand methods were in operation, quite apart from the propaganda and scare-mongering tactics which politicians, of whatever persuasion, bring into play to swing the vote. Yet, the people of Scotland who remain loyal to their nation will live to fight another day. The forces of change are inexorable once invoked and only time will be the final arbiter.

Sunday, 14 September 2014

A New Day Dawns...........but vote YES

Tuesday, 9 September 2014

The Disintegrating "No" Campaign

Unionist leaders to campaign in Scotland

The announcment was dismissed as "hype" by Mr Salmond, who said that there was nothing new in the package.
"This is the day that the No campaign finally fell apart at the seams," he said during a photocall outside Edinburgh's St Giles Cathedral with EU citizens who have the right to vote in the referendum.
"This is a retreading, a repackaging, retimetabling about what they said in the spring.
"It's totally inadequate, it's not enough. It's nothing approaching the powers that Scotland needs to create jobs, to save the health service and build a better society.
"The polls at the weekend, which caused so much panic in the breasties of the No campaign, actually showed that independence was the most popular option.
"And of course David Cameron and George Osborne, their one red-line issue in setting up this referendum was not to allow devo max, as it is called, on to the ballot paper.
"So to actually produce something which is far short of that, which is weak, insipid and has already been discounted by the Scottish people with days to go in the campaign, after hundreds of thousands of people have already voted, is a sign of the total disintegration of the No campaign.
"I've never seen a campaign disintegrate in the way that the No campaign is disintegrating at the moment."
With the three party leaders out on the campaign trail tomorrow, the Leader of the Commons William Hague will stand in for Mr Cameron at Prime Minister's Questions.

Withou doubt Scotland will join the European Union

AN independent Scotland’s membership of the European Union would be secured within the SNP’s 18-month timescale, a former president of the European Parliament has said.

Ireland’s Pat Cox branded opposition claims that Scotland would find itself frozen out of the EU as “sophistry” and said the country’s expulsion would damage the internal market and lead to “chaos” in the EU fisheries sector.

Mr Cox, who was president of the parliament between 2002 and 2004, said the EU has always shown “pragmatism and inventiveness” when dealing with territorial changes such as the re-unification of Germany.

“It has always respected the expressed democratic will of the peoples involved,” he said.

The prospect of Scotland being forced to “go to the back” of an enlargement queue is also dismissed by Mr Cox.

“Such statements, arguably, are sophistry and do not bear analysis,” he added.

“Moreover, it is unclear what would be the common European interest in seeking to expel an independent Scotland. On the contrary, at the limit, such interests could be damaged by the fragmentation of the internal market and not least the chaotic implications for the EU’s fisheries sector, including its Scottish-related access to Norwegian fisheries.”

The Scottish Government says Scotland would secure its EU membership before the new state became fully independent in March 2016. This would be achieved by renegotiating existing treaties, through an Article 48 amendment. Mr Cox says this would be viable and reflect the “past pragmatism and inventiveness” of the EU.

Many experts have warned that an independent Scotland would find itself outside the EU and be forced to re-apply to join, known as an Article 49 amendment.

But Mr Cox adds: “Article 49 is the outsider’s means of applying to get in, not an insider’s means of negotiating continuity of effect in respect of its territory and citizens.”

Scotland’s membership of the EU is seen as crucial economically. It would mean firms retaining access to the lucrative single market and vital EU global trade treaties. But there have been concerns that Scotland could be forced into joining the troubled euro currency union or sign up to the Schengen “open borders” arrangement.

It has been one of the key issues in the independence debate. In order to join the EU, whether through the Article 48 or 49 route, an independent Scotland would need agreement from all 28 EU member states. There have been concerns that countries such as Spain and Italy, which have their own separatist movements, may object to Scotland’s membership.

Just last week a row broke out when former Brussels economic commissioner Ollie Rehn warned that continuing to use the pound without a formal currency union could prevent an independent Scotland from joining the EU.

He said in a letter to Treasury Secretary Danny Alexander it would “simply not be possible” to combine a policy of sterlingisation with EU membership.

Monday, 8 September 2014

Scots Independence Poll Puts ‘Yes’ Campaign Ahead at 51%

By Rodney Jefferson and Thomas Penny Sep 7, 2014 3:49 PM GMT+0200

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Photographer: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images

Scotland’s nationalists overtook opponents of independence in anopinion poll for the first time this year, sparking a government promise of more powers for the Scottish parliament less than two weeks before the country votes on whether to break up the 307-year-old U.K.

A YouGov Plc survey for the Sunday Times showed Yes voters increased to 51 percent, while the No side dropped