Thursday 9 April 2015

Why not make it a a Clean Sweep?

No really, the SNP are going to win at least 50

of Scotland’s 59 seats.

The swing in Labour’s heartlands is even
greater than the swing implied by national
polls.

by Harry Lambert Published 7 April, 2015 - 11:58

The SNP has surged since the referendum under Sturgeon's leadership. Photo: Getty.

Four things have changed in the polls – and in election predictions – since this site launched in early September.
Labour lost their 3-4 point poll lead and are now resolutely tied with the Tories; Ukip have gradually dipped since November, but are still set to win 4 million votes; and the Greens nearly caught the Lib Dems in the polls before fading.
But by far the most significant change has, of course, been in Scotland. If the SNP surge had never happened, Labour would be set to win more than 300 seats and take power in May. Instead, we are predicting the SNP will win 55 seats, and an average of different forecasts hands them 46. In 2010 they won 6. There are only 59 seats in Scotland.

Few pundits believe these predictions.

Few pundits believe these predictions. Most people hesitate to give the SNP more than 30 seats (as a recent survey of hundreds of political academics proved). Very few can conceive of more than 40. And almost no one predicts the SNP will win at least 50.
And yet no poll has implied the SNP will win as few as 35 seats, and the vast majority suggest they will win more than 40. 18 Scotland-wide polls have been published over the past five months, and they have almost all suggested the same thing: the SNP will win 45-50 seats, and Labour will lose around 30 of its 41.

Labour are collapsing in their heartlands

At their most favourable, the polls suggest Labour will only lose half their Scottish seats. But no poll has been so favourable to Labour since February began, and constituency polls published since then have suggested that national polls are underrating the scale of Labour’s collapse.
Lord Ashcroft has polled 40 per cent of Scotland’s seats over the past two months. His polls have been devastating for Labour. He has polled 19 of Labour’s 41 seats. 16 of those polls have been in the harder half of seats for the SNP to win – the ones where Labour are protecting majorities of at least 29 points (for comparison, Ed Miliband won his seat, Doncaster North, by 26 points in 2010).

Ashcroft’s polls suggest Labour will lose also but 3-4 of their seats.

14 of those 16 polls have put the SNP ahead, all by at least 3 points (in other words, almost all are outside the margin of error). These polls imply Labour will lose all but 3-4 of their seats. That is significantly fewer than the 9-11 seats that national polls imply Labour will hold.
In other words, the swing to the SNP in Labour’s heartlands is even greater than the swing in national polls. The swing in national polls is 20.5 points, which means any Labour seat with a majority of less than 41 per cent would turn SNP on an uniform swing. [1]
But Ashcroft has shown an even greater swing than 20.5 points in the 19 Labour-held seats he’s polled. The swing he’s found has been just under 25 points, which would wipe out all Labour seats where they hold majorities of less than 50 points (David Cameron won his seat, Witney, by 39 points in 2010).

Dramatic SNP surge in Scotland set to leave

Labour with just TWO MPs robbing Miliband

of a Commons majority

Study of marginal seats suggests election heading for deadlock in May
The SNP is on course for a landslide in Scotland at the General Election
Nationalists could win as many as 56 of Scotland's 59 seats, up from six
Labour would be left with two MPs, the Lib Dems one and the Tories none

By Jason Groves for the Daily Mail

A dramatic surge by the SNP looks set to claim Gordon Brown's Scottish seat and rob Ed Miliband of a Commons majority, according to a new poll last night.

The study of marginal constituencies suggests Labour and the Conservatives are heading for electoral deadlock in May, with neither party able to govern alone.

The poll, commissioned by former Tory treasurer Lord Ashcroft, suggests the SNP is on course for a landslide at the General Election, winning as many as 56 of Scotland's 59 seats - up from just six at present.

The SNP surge would claim seats held by a string of household names, including those of departing Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling, and former Lib Dem leader Charles Kennedy. The Tories are also in danger of losing their one Scottish seat, held by David Mundell.

At Westminster the poll suggests Labour and the Conservatives will be tied on 272 seats each - well short of the 326 needed to command a Commons majority. Lord Ashcroft said the astonishing surge by the SNP in the wake of last year's independence referendum had thrown a 'giant spanner in Labour's works', although the party is forecast to win Tory seats south of the border.

Of the eight Scottish seats polled, the SNP would gain six - including four from Labour - and tie with Mr Mundell, in Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale.