Friday, 25 March 2011

All you need to know about the Assembly Elections

From Wikipaedia



National Assembly for Wales election, 2011

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia



The National Assembly for Wales election 2011 will be the next election for the National Assembly and the Welsh Assembly Government
The poll will be held on Thursday 5 May 2011 and will decide the incumbency for all the assembly's seats. 
It will be the fourth election for seats in the National Assembly for Wales, (previous elections in 19992003 and 2007
and will be the second election taken under the rules of the Government of Wales Act 2006.

Contents

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[edit]Opinion polls

Constituency Vote (FPTP)
Firm/ClientSurvey end dateLabPCConLDOthers
YouGov/ITV Wales4–8 March 201148% (+3)19% (-2)20% (-1)7% (NC)7% (+1)
YouGov/ITV Wales24–26 January 201145% (+1)21% (NC)21% (-2)7% (+1)6% (NC)
YouGov/ITV Wales20–22 December 201044% (NC)21% (NC)23% (+2)6% (-3)6% (NC)
YouGov/ITV Wales22–24 November 201044% (NC)21% (NC)21% (+2)9% (NC)6% (-2)
YouGov/ITV Wales25–27 October 201044%21%19%9%8%
2007 General Election32.2%22.4%22.4%14.8%8.2%
Regional Vote (AMS)
Firm/ClientSurvey end dateLabPCConLDUKIPGreenBNPOthers
YouGov/ITV Wales4–8 March 201145% (+4)18% (-3)20% (NC)5% (-3)5% (+1)4% (+2)1% (NC)1% (-2)
YouGov/ITV Wales24–26 January 201141% (-1)21% (NC)20% (-2)8% (+3)4% (-1)2% (-1)1% (NC)3% (+2)
YouGov/ITV Wales20–22 December 201042% (+1)21% (+1)22% (+2)5% (-4)5% (+1)3% (NC)1% (-1)1% (-1)
YouGov/ITV Wales22–24 November 201041% (+1)20% (-3)20% (+2)9% (NC)4% (-2)3% (+1)2% (NC)2% (+1)
YouGov/ITV Wales25–27 October 201040%23%18%9%6%2%2%1%
2007 General Election29.6%21.0%21.4%11.7%4.0%3.5%4.3%4.5%

[edit]Constituency nominations

NB: candidates in BOLD text are the incumbent assembly members. Non incumbents are represented in italics
ConstituencyConservativeLabourLiberal DemocratsPlaid CymruUKIPOthersResult
AberavonTJ MorganDavid ReesHelen Ceri ClarkePaul Nicholls Jones
AberconwyJanet Finch-SaundersEifion Wyn WilliamsMike PriestleyIwan Huws
Alyn and DeesideJohn BellCarl SargeantPeter WilliamsShane Brennan
ArfonChristina ReesRhys JonesAlun Ffred JonesOwain Williams (Llais GwyneddPatrick Byrne(BNP)
Blaenau GwentAlun DaviesMartin BlakebroughDarren JonesJayne Sullivan (Independent Conservative)
Brecon and RadnorshireChris DaviesChris LloydKirsty WilliamsGary Price
BridgendAlex WilliamsCarwyn JonesBriony DaviesTim Thomas
CaerphillyOwen MeredithJeff CuthbertKay DavidRon Davies
Cardiff CentralMatt SmithJenny RathboneNigel HowellsChris Williams
Cardiff NorthJonathan MorganJulie MorganMatt SmithBen Foday
Cardiff South and PenarthBen GrayVaughan GethingSian Anne CliffLiz Musa
Cardiff WestCraig WilliamsMark DrakefordDavid MorganNeil McEvoy
Carmarthen East and DinefwrHenrietta HensherAntony JonesWill GriffithsRhodri Glyn Thomas
Carmarthen West and South PembrokeshireAngela BurnsChristine GwytherSelwyn RunnettNerys Evans
CeredigionLuke EvettsRichard BoudierElizabeth EvansElin JonesChris Simpson (Welsh Green Party)
Clwyd SouthPaul RogersKen SkatesBruce RobertsMabon ap Gwynfor
Clwyd WestDarren MillarCrispin JonesBrian Cossey [2]Eifion Lloyd Jones
Cynon ValleyDaniel Saxton[3]Christine ChapmanIan WaltonDafydd Trystan
DelynMatthew WrightSandy MewiesMichele JonesCarrie Harper
Dwyfor MeirionnyddSimon Baynes [4]Angry MartynSteve ChurchmanLord Elis-ThomasLouise Hughes (Llais GwyneddJosh Clarke(Standing at the back looking stupid Party)
GowerCaroline JonesEdwina HartPeter MayDarren Price
IslwynGwyn PriceSteffan Lewis
LlanelliAndrew MorganKeith DaviesHelen Mary Jones
Merthyr Tydfil and RhymneyChris O'BrienHuw LewisAmy KitcherNoel Turner
MonmouthNick RamsayMark WhitcuttJanet EllardFiona Cross
MontgomeryshireRussell GeorgeNick Colbourne[5]Wyn WilliamsDavid Senior
NeathGwenda ThomasMatthew McCarthyAlun Llewellyn
Newport EastNick WebbJohn GriffithsEd TownsendChris Paul
Newport WestDavid WilliamsRosemary ButlerElizabeth NewtonLyndon Binding
OgmoreMartyn HughesJanice GregoryGerald FrancisDanny Clark
PontypriddJoel JamesMick AntoniwMike PowellIoan Bellin
Preseli PembrokeshirePaul DaviesTerry MillsBob KilmisterRhys Sinnett
RhonddaLeighton AndrewsGeorge SummersSera Evans-Fear
Swansea EastDan BoucherMichael HedgesSam SamuelDic Jones
Swansea WestStephen JenkinsJulie JamesRob SpehtCarl Harris
TorfaenNatasha AsgharLynne NeagleJeff ReesIan Williams (Torfaen People's Democratic Voice)
Vale of ClwydIan GunningAnn JonesHeather PrydderchAlun Lloyd Jones
Vale of GlamorganAngela Jones-EvansJane HuttDamian ChickIan Johnson
WrexhamJohn MarekLesley GriffithsBill BreretonMarc Jones
Ynys MônPaul WilliamsJoe LockIeuan Wyn JonesKatherine Dunkley (Welsh Communist Party)

[edit]Regional lists

[edit]Mid and West Wales

BNPConservativesGreenLabourLiberal DemocratsPlaid CymruUKIP
1.Nick BourneLeila KierschJoyce WatsonWilliam PowellSimon ThomasChristine Williams
2.Lisa FrancisElly FosterMari ReesMark ColeRhys DaviesClive Easton
3.Marilyn ElsonMatthew DorranceEd WilsonLlywelyn ReesNick Powell
4.Rebecca EvansSteffan JohnEllen ap GwynnDavid W Rowlands

[edit]North Wales

BNPConservativesGreenLabourLiberal DemocratsPlaid CymruUKIP
1.Mark IsherwoodDorienne RobinsonGwyneth ThomasAled RobertsLlyr Huws GriffithsNathan Gill
2.Brynle WilliamsTimothy FosterDavid PhillipsEleanor BurnhamHeledd FychanWarwick Nicholson
3.Antoinette SandbachPeter HaigDiane GreenDyfed EdwardsAndrew Haigh
4.Janet HowarthColin HughesLiz Saville-RobertsElwyn Williams

[edit]South Wales Central

BNPConservativesGreenLabourLiberal DemocratsPlaid CymruUKIP
1.Andrew R.T. DaviesJake GriffithsJayne BrencherJohn DixonLeanne WoodKevin Mahoney
2.David MeldingSam CoatesCraig JonesEluned ParrottChris FranksSimon Ziegler
3.Lyn HudsonJohn MatthewsAlex ThomasRachael HitchinsonDelme BowenLaurence Gwyn
4.Matt TownsendJohn DrysdaleElgan MorganRichard GriggTony Jenkins

[edit]South Wales East

BNPConservativesEnglish DemocratsGreenLabourLiberal DemocratsPlaid CymruUKIP
1.William GrahamChristopher WereDebbie WilcoxVeronica GermanJocelyn DaviesDavid J Rowlands
2.Mohammad AsgharPippa BartolottiAnthony HuntPhil HobsonLindsay WhittleNeil (Jock) Greer
3.Caroline OagOwen ClarkeKaren WilkieBleddyn HancockPeter Osbourne
4.Benjamin SmithAllison AylandHefin DavidJohnathan ClarkGareth Dunn
5.Paul PaviaAlan Williams

[edit]South Wales West

BNPConservativesGreenLabourLiberal DemocratsPlaid CymruThe Socialist AlternativeUKIP
1.Suzy DaviesKeith RossAlana DaviesCllr. Peter BlackBethan JenkinsDavid Bevan
2.Byron DaviesHuw EvansGeraint HopkinsStuart RiceDr. David LloydJohn Atkinson
3.Altaf HussainMarie JohnMyfanwy DaviesTim Jenkins
4.Dayne PowellEdward JonesLinet PurcellDavid Rodgers

[edit]Target seats for the main parties

Below are listed all the constituencies which require a swing of less than 7.5% from the 2007 result to change hands.

[edit]Labour Targets

RankConstituencyWinning party 2007Swing to gainLabour's place 2007Result
1Carmarthen West & South PembrokeshireConservative0.172nd
2Clwyd WestConservative3.052nd
3Preseli PembrokeshireConservative5.582nd
4LlanelliPlaid Cymru7.042nd
5Cardiff NorthConservative7.192nd

[edit]Plaid Cymru Targets

RankConstituencyWinning party 2007Swing to gainPC's place 2007Result
1Carmarthen West & South PembrokeshireConservative0.443rd
2Clwyd WestConservative3.333rd
3NeathLabour3.362nd
4CaerphillyLabour4.382nd
5Preseli PembrokeshireConservative6.923rd

[edit]Conservative Targets

RankConstituencyWinning party 2007Swing to gainCon's place 2007Result
1Vale of GlamorganLabour0.132nd
2Vale of ClwydLabour0.212nd
3DelynLabour1.182nd
4GowerLabour2.172nd
5Clwyd SouthLabour2.872nd
6Newport WestLabour2.962nd
7AberconwyPlaid Cymru4.092nd
8MontgomeryshireLiberal Democrats4.442nd
9Newport EastLabour4.733rd
10Cardiff South & PenarthLabour5.152nd
11BridgendLabour5.212nd
12WrexhamLabour5.783rd
13Swansea WestLabour6.583rd
14Cardiff WestLabour6.882nd

[edit]Liberal Democrat Targets

RankConstituencyWinning party 2007Swing to gainLD's place 2007Result
1Newport EastLabour2.202nd
2Swansea WestLabour3.302nd
3WrexhamLabour6.054th
4CeredigionPlaid Cymru6.572nd
5PontypriddLabour7.112nd

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1 comment:

John Hurst said...

Latest Assembly Election Poll is out: http://www.rmg-clarity.co.uk/blog/2011/4/7/welsh-assembly-election-2011.html