National Assembly for Wales election, 2011
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The National Assembly for Wales election 2011 will be the next election for the National Assembly and the Welsh Assembly Government.
The poll will be held on Thursday 5 May 2011 and will decide the incumbency for all the assembly's seats.
It will be the fourth election for seats in the National Assembly for Wales, (previous elections in 1999, 2003 and 2007)
and will be the second election taken under the rules of the Government of Wales Act 2006.
The poll will be held on Thursday 5 May 2011 and will decide the incumbency for all the assembly's seats.
It will be the fourth election for seats in the National Assembly for Wales, (previous elections in 1999, 2003 and 2007)
and will be the second election taken under the rules of the Government of Wales Act 2006.
Contents[hide] |
[edit]Opinion polls
Constituency Vote (FPTP) | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Firm/Client | Survey end date | Lab | PC | Con | LD | Others | ||||
YouGov/ITV Wales | 4–8 March 2011 | 48% (+3) | 19% (-2) | 20% (-1) | 7% (NC) | 7% (+1) | ||||
YouGov/ITV Wales | 24–26 January 2011 | 45% (+1) | 21% (NC) | 21% (-2) | 7% (+1) | 6% (NC) | ||||
YouGov/ITV Wales | 20–22 December 2010 | 44% (NC) | 21% (NC) | 23% (+2) | 6% (-3) | 6% (NC) | ||||
YouGov/ITV Wales | 22–24 November 2010 | 44% (NC) | 21% (NC) | 21% (+2) | 9% (NC) | 6% (-2) | ||||
YouGov/ITV Wales | 25–27 October 2010 | 44% | 21% | 19% | 9% | 8% | ||||
2007 General Election | 32.2% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 14.8% | 8.2% |
Regional Vote (AMS) | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Firm/Client | Survey end date | Lab | PC | Con | LD | UKIP | Green | BNP | Others | |
YouGov/ITV Wales | 4–8 March 2011 | 45% (+4) | 18% (-3) | 20% (NC) | 5% (-3) | 5% (+1) | 4% (+2) | 1% (NC) | 1% (-2) | |
YouGov/ITV Wales | 24–26 January 2011 | 41% (-1) | 21% (NC) | 20% (-2) | 8% (+3) | 4% (-1) | 2% (-1) | 1% (NC) | 3% (+2) | |
YouGov/ITV Wales | 20–22 December 2010 | 42% (+1) | 21% (+1) | 22% (+2) | 5% (-4) | 5% (+1) | 3% (NC) | 1% (-1) | 1% (-1) | |
YouGov/ITV Wales | 22–24 November 2010 | 41% (+1) | 20% (-3) | 20% (+2) | 9% (NC) | 4% (-2) | 3% (+1) | 2% (NC) | 2% (+1) | |
YouGov/ITV Wales | 25–27 October 2010 | 40% | 23% | 18% | 9% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% | |
2007 General Election | 29.6% | 21.0% | 21.4% | 11.7% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% |
[edit]Constituency nominations
NB: candidates in BOLD text are the incumbent assembly members. Non incumbents are represented in italics
Constituency | Conservative | Labour | Liberal Democrats | Plaid Cymru | UKIP | Others | Result |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aberavon | TJ Morgan | David Rees | Helen Ceri Clarke | Paul Nicholls Jones | |||
Aberconwy | Janet Finch-Saunders | Eifion Wyn Williams | Mike Priestley | Iwan Huws | |||
Alyn and Deeside | John Bell | Carl Sargeant | Peter Williams | Shane Brennan | |||
Arfon | Christina Rees | Rhys Jones | Alun Ffred Jones | Owain Williams (Llais Gwynedd) Patrick Byrne(BNP) | |||
Blaenau Gwent | Alun Davies | Martin Blakebrough | Darren Jones | Jayne Sullivan (Independent Conservative) | |||
Brecon and Radnorshire | Chris Davies | Chris Lloyd | Kirsty Williams | Gary Price | |||
Bridgend | Alex Williams | Carwyn Jones | Briony Davies | Tim Thomas | |||
Caerphilly | Owen Meredith | Jeff Cuthbert | Kay David | Ron Davies | |||
Cardiff Central | Matt Smith | Jenny Rathbone | Nigel Howells | Chris Williams | |||
Cardiff North | Jonathan Morgan | Julie Morgan | Matt Smith | Ben Foday | |||
Cardiff South and Penarth | Ben Gray | Vaughan Gething | Sian Anne Cliff | Liz Musa | |||
Cardiff West | Craig Williams | Mark Drakeford | David Morgan | Neil McEvoy | |||
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr | Henrietta Hensher | Antony Jones | Will Griffiths | Rhodri Glyn Thomas | |||
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire | Angela Burns | Christine Gwyther | Selwyn Runnett | Nerys Evans | |||
Ceredigion | Luke Evetts | Richard Boudier | Elizabeth Evans | Elin Jones | Chris Simpson (Welsh Green Party) | ||
Clwyd South | Paul Rogers | Ken Skates | Bruce Roberts | Mabon ap Gwynfor | |||
Clwyd West | Darren Millar | Crispin Jones | Brian Cossey [2] | Eifion Lloyd Jones | |||
Cynon Valley | Daniel Saxton[3] | Christine Chapman | Ian Walton | Dafydd Trystan | |||
Delyn | Matthew Wright | Sandy Mewies | Michele Jones | Carrie Harper | |||
Dwyfor Meirionnydd | Simon Baynes [4] | Angry Martyn | Steve Churchman | Lord Elis-Thomas | Louise Hughes (Llais Gwynedd) Josh Clarke(Standing at the back looking stupid Party) | ||
Gower | Caroline Jones | Edwina Hart | Peter May | Darren Price | |||
Islwyn | Gwyn Price | Steffan Lewis | |||||
Llanelli | Andrew Morgan | Keith Davies | Helen Mary Jones | ||||
Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney | Chris O'Brien | Huw Lewis | Amy Kitcher | Noel Turner | |||
Monmouth | Nick Ramsay | Mark Whitcutt | Janet Ellard | Fiona Cross | |||
Montgomeryshire | Russell George | Nick Colbourne[5] | Wyn Williams | David Senior | |||
Neath | Gwenda Thomas | Matthew McCarthy | Alun Llewellyn | ||||
Newport East | Nick Webb | John Griffiths | Ed Townsend | Chris Paul | |||
Newport West | David Williams | Rosemary Butler | Elizabeth Newton | Lyndon Binding | |||
Ogmore | Martyn Hughes | Janice Gregory | Gerald Francis | Danny Clark | |||
Pontypridd | Joel James | Mick Antoniw | Mike Powell | Ioan Bellin | |||
Preseli Pembrokeshire | Paul Davies | Terry Mills | Bob Kilmister | Rhys Sinnett | |||
Rhondda | Leighton Andrews | George Summers | Sera Evans-Fear | ||||
Swansea East | Dan Boucher | Michael Hedges | Sam Samuel | Dic Jones | |||
Swansea West | Stephen Jenkins | Julie James | Rob Speht | Carl Harris | |||
Torfaen | Natasha Asghar | Lynne Neagle | Jeff Rees | Ian Williams (Torfaen People's Democratic Voice) | |||
Vale of Clwyd | Ian Gunning | Ann Jones | Heather Prydderch | Alun Lloyd Jones | |||
Vale of Glamorgan | Angela Jones-Evans | Jane Hutt | Damian Chick | Ian Johnson | |||
Wrexham | John Marek | Lesley Griffiths | Bill Brereton | Marc Jones | |||
Ynys Môn | Paul Williams | Joe Lock | Ieuan Wyn Jones | Katherine Dunkley (Welsh Communist Party) |
[edit]Regional lists
- This list is incomplete; you can help by expanding it.
[edit]Mid and West Wales
BNP | Conservatives | Green | Labour | Liberal Democrats | Plaid Cymru | UKIP | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Nick Bourne | Leila Kiersch | Joyce Watson | William Powell | Simon Thomas | Christine Williams | |
2. | Lisa Francis | Elly Foster | Mari Rees | Mark Cole | Rhys Davies | Clive Easton | |
3. | Marilyn Elson | Matthew Dorrance | Ed Wilson | Llywelyn Rees | Nick Powell | ||
4. | Rebecca Evans | Steffan John | Ellen ap Gwynn | David W Rowlands |
[edit]North Wales
BNP | Conservatives | Green | Labour | Liberal Democrats | Plaid Cymru | UKIP | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Mark Isherwood | Dorienne Robinson | Gwyneth Thomas | Aled Roberts | Llyr Huws Griffiths | Nathan Gill | |
2. | Brynle Williams | Timothy Foster | David Phillips | Eleanor Burnham | Heledd Fychan | Warwick Nicholson | |
3. | Antoinette Sandbach | Peter Haig | Diane Green | Dyfed Edwards | Andrew Haigh | ||
4. | Janet Howarth | Colin Hughes | Liz Saville-Roberts | Elwyn Williams |
[edit]South Wales Central
BNP | Conservatives | Green | Labour | Liberal Democrats | Plaid Cymru | UKIP | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Andrew R.T. Davies | Jake Griffiths | Jayne Brencher | John Dixon | Leanne Wood | Kevin Mahoney | |
2. | David Melding | Sam Coates | Craig Jones | Eluned Parrott | Chris Franks | Simon Ziegler | |
3. | Lyn Hudson | John Matthews | Alex Thomas | Rachael Hitchinson | Delme Bowen | Laurence Gwyn | |
4. | Matt Townsend | John Drysdale | Elgan Morgan | Richard Grigg | Tony Jenkins |
[edit]South Wales East
BNP | Conservatives | English Democrats | Green | Labour | Liberal Democrats | Plaid Cymru | UKIP | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. | William Graham | Christopher Were | Debbie Wilcox | Veronica German | Jocelyn Davies | David J Rowlands | ||
2. | Mohammad Asghar | Pippa Bartolotti | Anthony Hunt | Phil Hobson | Lindsay Whittle | Neil (Jock) Greer | ||
3. | Caroline Oag | Owen Clarke | Karen Wilkie | Bleddyn Hancock | Peter Osbourne | |||
4. | Benjamin Smith | Allison Ayland | Hefin David | Johnathan Clark | Gareth Dunn | |||
5. | Paul Pavia | Alan Williams |
[edit]South Wales West
BNP | Conservatives | Green | Labour | Liberal Democrats | Plaid Cymru | The Socialist Alternative | UKIP | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Suzy Davies | Keith Ross | Alana Davies | Cllr. Peter Black | Bethan Jenkins | David Bevan | ||
2. | Byron Davies | Huw Evans | Geraint Hopkins | Stuart Rice | Dr. David Lloyd | John Atkinson | ||
3. | Altaf Hussain | Marie John | Myfanwy Davies | Tim Jenkins | ||||
4. | Dayne Powell | Edward Jones | Linet Purcell | David Rodgers |
[edit]Target seats for the main parties
Below are listed all the constituencies which require a swing of less than 7.5% from the 2007 result to change hands.
[edit]Labour Targets
Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2007 | Swing to gain | Labour's place 2007 | Result | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire | Conservative | 0.17 | 2nd | ||
2 | Clwyd West | Conservative | 3.05 | 2nd | ||
3 | Preseli Pembrokeshire | Conservative | 5.58 | 2nd | ||
4 | Llanelli | Plaid Cymru | 7.04 | 2nd | ||
5 | Cardiff North | Conservative | 7.19 | 2nd |
[edit]Plaid Cymru Targets
Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2007 | Swing to gain | PC's place 2007 | Result | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire | Conservative | 0.44 | 3rd | ||
2 | Clwyd West | Conservative | 3.33 | 3rd | ||
3 | Neath | Labour | 3.36 | 2nd | ||
4 | Caerphilly | Labour | 4.38 | 2nd | ||
5 | Preseli Pembrokeshire | Conservative | 6.92 | 3rd |
[edit]Conservative Targets
Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2007 | Swing to gain | Con's place 2007 | Result | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Vale of Glamorgan | Labour | 0.13 | 2nd | ||
2 | Vale of Clwyd | Labour | 0.21 | 2nd | ||
3 | Delyn | Labour | 1.18 | 2nd | ||
4 | Gower | Labour | 2.17 | 2nd | ||
5 | Clwyd South | Labour | 2.87 | 2nd | ||
6 | Newport West | Labour | 2.96 | 2nd | ||
7 | Aberconwy | Plaid Cymru | 4.09 | 2nd | ||
8 | Montgomeryshire | Liberal Democrats | 4.44 | 2nd | ||
9 | Newport East | Labour | 4.73 | 3rd | ||
10 | Cardiff South & Penarth | Labour | 5.15 | 2nd | ||
11 | Bridgend | Labour | 5.21 | 2nd | ||
12 | Wrexham | Labour | 5.78 | 3rd | ||
13 | Swansea West | Labour | 6.58 | 3rd | ||
14 | Cardiff West | Labour | 6.88 | 2nd |
[edit]Liberal Democrat Targets
Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2007 | Swing to gain | LD's place 2007 | Result | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Newport East | Labour | 2.20 | 2nd | ||
2 | Swansea West | Labour | 3.30 | 2nd | ||
3 | Wrexham | Labour | 6.05 | 4th | ||
4 | Ceredigion | Plaid Cymru | 6.57 | 2nd | ||
5 | Pontypridd | Labour | 7.11 | 2nd |
1 comment:
Latest Assembly Election Poll is out: http://www.rmg-clarity.co.uk/blog/2011/4/7/welsh-assembly-election-2011.html
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