All you need to know about the Assembly Elections

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National Assembly for Wales election, 2011

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The National Assembly for Wales election 2011 will be the next election for the National Assembly and the Welsh Assembly Government. 
The poll will be held on Thursday 5 May 2011 and will decide the incumbency for all the assembly's seats. 
It will be the fourth election for seats in the National Assembly for Wales, (previous elections in 1999, 2003 and 2007) 
and will be the second election taken under the rules of the Government of Wales Act 2006.

Contents  [hide] 1 Opinion polls 2 Constituency nominations 3 Regional lists 3.1 Mid and West Wales 3.2 North Wales 3.3 South Wales Central 3.4 South Wales East 3.5 South Wales West 4 Target seats for the main parties 4.1 Labour Targets 4.2 Plaid Cymru Targets 4.3 Conservative Targets 4.4 Liberal Democrat Targets 5 New members 6 Defeated members 7 Retiring members 8 See also 9 References

[edit]Opinion polls

Constituency Vote (FPTP)
Firm/Client	Survey end date	Lab	PC	Con	LD	Others
YouGov/ITV Wales	4–8 March 2011	48% (+3)	19% (-2)	20% (-1)	7% (NC)	7% (+1)
YouGov/ITV Wales	24–26 January 2011	45% (+1)	21% (NC)	21% (-2)	7% (+1)	6% (NC)
YouGov/ITV Wales	20–22 December 2010	44% (NC)	21% (NC)	23% (+2)	6% (-3)	6% (NC)
YouGov/ITV Wales	22–24 November 2010	44% (NC)	21% (NC)	21% (+2)	9% (NC)	6% (-2)
YouGov/ITV Wales	25–27 October 2010	44%	21%	19%	9%	8%
2007 General Election		32.2%	22.4%	22.4%	14.8%	8.2%

Regional Vote (AMS)
Firm/Client	Survey end date	Lab	PC	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	BNP	Others
YouGov/ITV Wales	4–8 March 2011	45% (+4)	18% (-3)	20% (NC)	5% (-3)	5% (+1)	4% (+2)	1% (NC)	1% (-2)
YouGov/ITV Wales	24–26 January 2011	41% (-1)	21% (NC)	20% (-2)	8% (+3)	4% (-1)	2% (-1)	1% (NC)	3% (+2)
YouGov/ITV Wales	20–22 December 2010	42% (+1)	21% (+1)	22% (+2)	5% (-4)	5% (+1)	3% (NC)	1% (-1)	1% (-1)
YouGov/ITV Wales	22–24 November 2010	41% (+1)	20% (-3)	20% (+2)	9% (NC)	4% (-2)	3% (+1)	2% (NC)	2% (+1)
YouGov/ITV Wales	25–27 October 2010	40%	23%	18%	9%	6%	2%	2%	1%
2007 General Election		29.6%	21.0%	21.4%	11.7%	4.0%	3.5%	4.3%	4.5%

[edit]Constituency nominations

NB: candidates in BOLD text are the incumbent assembly members. Non incumbents are represented in italics

Constituency	Conservative	Labour	Liberal Democrats	Plaid Cymru	UKIP	Others	Result
Aberavon	TJ Morgan	David Rees	Helen Ceri Clarke	Paul Nicholls Jones
Aberconwy	Janet Finch-Saunders	Eifion Wyn Williams	Mike Priestley	Iwan Huws
Alyn and Deeside	John Bell	Carl Sargeant	Peter Williams	Shane Brennan
Arfon		Christina Rees	Rhys Jones	Alun Ffred Jones		Owain Williams (Llais Gwynedd) Patrick Byrne(BNP)
Blaenau Gwent		Alun Davies	Martin Blakebrough	Darren Jones		Jayne Sullivan (Independent Conservative)
Brecon and Radnorshire	Chris Davies	Chris Lloyd	Kirsty Williams	Gary Price
Bridgend	Alex Williams	Carwyn Jones	Briony Davies	Tim Thomas
Caerphilly	Owen Meredith	Jeff Cuthbert	Kay David	Ron Davies
Cardiff Central	Matt Smith	Jenny Rathbone	Nigel Howells	Chris Williams
Cardiff North	Jonathan Morgan	Julie Morgan	Matt Smith	Ben Foday
Cardiff South and Penarth	Ben Gray	Vaughan Gething	Sian Anne Cliff	Liz Musa
Cardiff West	Craig Williams	Mark Drakeford	David Morgan	Neil McEvoy
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Henrietta Hensher	Antony Jones	Will Griffiths	Rhodri Glyn Thomas
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire	Angela Burns	Christine Gwyther	Selwyn Runnett	Nerys Evans
Ceredigion	Luke Evetts	Richard Boudier	Elizabeth Evans	Elin Jones		Chris Simpson (Welsh Green Party)
Clwyd South	Paul Rogers	Ken Skates	Bruce Roberts	Mabon ap Gwynfor
Clwyd West	Darren Millar	Crispin Jones	Brian Cossey [2]	Eifion Lloyd Jones
Cynon Valley	Daniel Saxton[3]	Christine Chapman	Ian Walton	Dafydd Trystan
Delyn	Matthew Wright	Sandy Mewies	Michele Jones	Carrie Harper
Dwyfor Meirionnydd	Simon Baynes [4]	Angry Martyn	Steve Churchman	Lord Elis-Thomas		Louise Hughes (Llais Gwynedd) Josh Clarke(Standing at the back looking stupid Party)
Gower	Caroline Jones	Edwina Hart	Peter May	Darren Price
Islwyn		Gwyn Price		Steffan Lewis
Llanelli	Andrew Morgan	Keith Davies		Helen Mary Jones
Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney	Chris O'Brien	Huw Lewis	Amy Kitcher	Noel Turner
Monmouth	Nick Ramsay	Mark Whitcutt	Janet Ellard	Fiona Cross
Montgomeryshire	Russell George	Nick Colbourne[5]	Wyn Williams	David Senior
Neath		Gwenda Thomas	Matthew McCarthy	Alun Llewellyn
Newport East	Nick Webb	John Griffiths	Ed Townsend	Chris Paul
Newport West	David Williams	Rosemary Butler	Elizabeth Newton	Lyndon Binding
Ogmore	Martyn Hughes	Janice Gregory	Gerald Francis	Danny Clark
Pontypridd	Joel James	Mick Antoniw	Mike Powell	Ioan Bellin
Preseli Pembrokeshire	Paul Davies	Terry Mills	Bob Kilmister	Rhys Sinnett
Rhondda		Leighton Andrews	George Summers	Sera Evans-Fear
Swansea East	Dan Boucher	Michael Hedges	Sam Samuel	Dic Jones
Swansea West	Stephen Jenkins	Julie James	Rob Speht	Carl Harris
Torfaen	Natasha Asghar	Lynne Neagle		Jeff Rees		Ian Williams (Torfaen People's Democratic Voice)
Vale of Clwyd	Ian Gunning	Ann Jones	Heather Prydderch	Alun Lloyd Jones
Vale of Glamorgan	Angela Jones-Evans	Jane Hutt	Damian Chick	Ian Johnson
Wrexham	John Marek	Lesley Griffiths	Bill Brereton	Marc Jones
Ynys Môn	Paul Williams	Joe Lock		Ieuan Wyn Jones		Katherine Dunkley (Welsh Communist Party)

[edit]Regional lists

This list is incomplete; you can help by expanding it.

[edit]Mid and West Wales

	BNP	Conservatives	Green	Labour	Liberal Democrats	Plaid Cymru	UKIP
1.		Nick Bourne	Leila Kiersch	Joyce Watson	William Powell	Simon Thomas	Christine Williams
2.		Lisa Francis	Elly Foster	Mari Rees	Mark Cole	Rhys Davies	Clive Easton
3.			Marilyn Elson	Matthew Dorrance	Ed Wilson	Llywelyn Rees	Nick Powell
4.				Rebecca Evans	Steffan John	Ellen ap Gwynn	David W Rowlands

[edit]North Wales

	BNP	Conservatives	Green	Labour	Liberal Democrats	Plaid Cymru	UKIP
1.		Mark Isherwood	Dorienne Robinson	Gwyneth Thomas	Aled Roberts	Llyr Huws Griffiths	Nathan Gill
2.		Brynle Williams	Timothy Foster	David Phillips	Eleanor Burnham	Heledd Fychan	Warwick Nicholson
3.		Antoinette Sandbach	Peter Haig	Diane Green		Dyfed Edwards	Andrew Haigh
4.		Janet Howarth		Colin Hughes		Liz Saville-Roberts	Elwyn Williams

[edit]South Wales Central

	BNP	Conservatives	Green	Labour	Liberal Democrats	Plaid Cymru	UKIP
1.		Andrew R.T. Davies	Jake Griffiths	Jayne Brencher	John Dixon	Leanne Wood	Kevin Mahoney
2.		David Melding	Sam Coates	Craig Jones	Eluned Parrott	Chris Franks	Simon Ziegler
3.		Lyn Hudson	John Matthews	Alex Thomas	Rachael Hitchinson	Delme Bowen	Laurence Gwyn
4.			Matt Townsend	John Drysdale	Elgan Morgan	Richard Grigg	Tony Jenkins

[edit]South Wales East

	BNP	Conservatives	English Democrats	Green	Labour	Liberal Democrats	Plaid Cymru	UKIP
1.		William Graham		Christopher Were	Debbie Wilcox	Veronica German	Jocelyn Davies	David J Rowlands
2.		Mohammad Asghar		Pippa Bartolotti	Anthony Hunt	Phil Hobson	Lindsay Whittle	Neil (Jock) Greer
3.		Caroline Oag		Owen Clarke	Karen Wilkie		Bleddyn Hancock	Peter Osbourne
4.		Benjamin Smith	Allison Ayland	Hefin David		Johnathan Clark	Gareth Dunn
5.		Paul Pavia		Alan Williams

[edit]South Wales West

	BNP	Conservatives	Green	Labour	Liberal Democrats	Plaid Cymru	The Socialist Alternative	UKIP
1.		Suzy Davies	Keith Ross	Alana Davies	Cllr. Peter Black	Bethan Jenkins		David Bevan
2.		Byron Davies	Huw Evans	Geraint Hopkins	Stuart Rice	Dr. David Lloyd		John Atkinson
3.		Altaf Hussain		Marie John		Myfanwy Davies		Tim Jenkins
4.		Dayne Powell		Edward Jones		Linet Purcell		David Rodgers

[edit]Target seats for the main parties

Below are listed all the constituencies which require a swing of less than 7.5% from the 2007 result to change hands.

[edit]Labour Targets

Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2007		Swing to gain	Labour's place 2007	Result
1	Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire		Conservative	0.17	2nd
2	Clwyd West		Conservative	3.05	2nd
3	Preseli Pembrokeshire		Conservative	5.58	2nd
4	Llanelli		Plaid Cymru	7.04	2nd
5	Cardiff North		Conservative	7.19	2nd

[edit]Plaid Cymru Targets

Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2007		Swing to gain	PC's place 2007	Result
1	Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire		Conservative	0.44	3rd
2	Clwyd West		Conservative	3.33	3rd
3	Neath		Labour	3.36	2nd
4	Caerphilly		Labour	4.38	2nd
5	Preseli Pembrokeshire		Conservative	6.92	3rd

[edit]Conservative Targets

Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2007		Swing to gain	Con's place 2007	Result
1	Vale of Glamorgan		Labour	0.13	2nd
2	Vale of Clwyd		Labour	0.21	2nd
3	Delyn		Labour	1.18	2nd
4	Gower		Labour	2.17	2nd
5	Clwyd South		Labour	2.87	2nd
6	Newport West		Labour	2.96	2nd
7	Aberconwy		Plaid Cymru	4.09	2nd
8	Montgomeryshire		Liberal Democrats	4.44	2nd
9	Newport East		Labour	4.73	3rd
10	Cardiff South & Penarth		Labour	5.15	2nd
11	Bridgend		Labour	5.21	2nd
12	Wrexham		Labour	5.78	3rd
13	Swansea West		Labour	6.58	3rd
14	Cardiff West		Labour	6.88	2nd

[edit]Liberal Democrat Targets

Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2007		Swing to gain	LD's place 2007	Result
1	Newport East		Labour	2.20	2nd
2	Swansea West		Labour	3.30	2nd
3	Wrexham		Labour	6.05	4th
4	Ceredigion		Plaid Cymru	6.57	2nd
5	Pontypridd		Labour	7.11	2nd

[edit]